Anthropic's IPO announcement odds crater

Odds that Anthropic announces its IPO before December fell to 57% on Kalshi, from over 85% a week ago, after Democrats took Congress and AI stocks sold off, per CNBC. Odds of an announcement before January fell to 68% from 90%.

A soft debut would set the price for every AI lab behind it.

Zipline raises $1.5B at $21.5B

Paradigm, WCM Investment Management and Layer Global led the round, per TechCrunch. Walmart signed a multi-year deal for 300 more drone delivery sites, on top of the 21 the two run together now.

The valuation is nearly triple the $7.6B it carried in January, per Zipline.

Wonder files for IPO

The food hall and delivery company confidentially filed to go public, per TechCrunch. It owns Grubhub and Blue Apron and runs about 170 locations, per CNBC.

A Series D this summer valued it at $9B before the new money.

Thinking Machines Lab (Mira Murati's AI lab) is reportedly closing a $5B round at a $40B pre-money valuation, led by Accel, per Business Insider.

ByteDance (TikTok's parent company) The EU preliminarily found TikTok's For You feed breaches the Digital Services Act, steering users into harmful "rabbit holes," per PBS. A fine could reach 6% of global turnover. TikTok called the findings "fundamentally inaccurate."

DeepSeek (the Chinese AI lab) Its web chat and API went partially down for 45 minutes, four days after a nearly two-hour partial outage, per its status page. Service is back.

Applied Compute (an AI infrastructure company) raised $350M at a $3.25B valuation, led by Elad Gil, per SiliconANGLE. It passed $100M in annual recurring revenue in under 18 months.

Revolut (the British banking app) Investors completed a secondary share sale at $115B, up 53% from the $75B mark a year ago. No new money went in; existing investors sold to buyers including Glade Brook, Coatue, Durable, T. Rowe Price and Baillie Gifford, per TechCrunch.

Tesla will stop making the Cybertruck in 2027 to make room for more Cybercabs, per TechCrunch.

An AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem before 2027

▼ 25 from 28%. Kalshi

Kraken valued at $12.5B or more by Dec 31

▼ 12 from 24%. Polymarket

OpenRouter processed 790 trillion tokens in October, 25 times January's volume, and agents now burn about three-quarters of them.

@PeterJ_Walker · Carta